M22 - Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction--except extremes

Convenors: Frederic Vitart
Co-convener: Iracema Cavalcanti, Chris White 

There is a growing interest in the scientific, operational and applications communities in developing sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasts (2 weeks to a season) that fill the gap between medium-range weather and seasonal forecasts. Sub-seasonal forecasting is at a relatively early stage of development, yet operational models are beginning to exhibit some skill based on a number of sources of sub-seasonal predictability (e.g. sea-ice, soil moisture, MJO, stratosphere-troposphere interactions, teleconnections, etc.). This symposium seeks contributions on all aspects of S2S, with emphasis on relevant phenomena and mechanisms responsible for predictability, design of S2S forecast systems, forecast quality and uncertainty quantification, and approaches to leverage S2S forecasts for applications. Contributions that exploit the newly established WWRP/WCRP S2S project database are particularly welcome.